Evergreen (002391) quarterly report comments: Q1 slight growth supply-side changes are expected to drive product prices upward

Evergreen (002391) quarterly report comments: Q1 slight growth supply-side changes are expected to drive product prices upward
The short-term appreciation of 2019Q1 net profit increased by 7%. Evergreen shares released the first quarter report of 2019 on April 16, and the company realized operating income7.43 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.8%, net profit is 0.71 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.2%, performance is in line with expectations.Follow 3.According to the latest equity calculation of 5.9 billion shares, the corresponding EPS is 0.20 yuan.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.11/1.39/1.54 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating. The increase in small-scale pesticide prices led to an increase in 杭州桑拿网 performance, and the cost rate declined during the period. Moreover, the overall domestic pesticide market boom declined, and most large-scale pesticide prices fell at a high level, while some small varieties still maintained better market demand.According to Zhongnong Lihua, the average price of the company’s main product, imidacloprid / plasma, was 17 in the first quarter.4/17.8 million / ton, a decrease of 18% / 19% each year; however, the average price of mesotrione / butyral urea / tricyclazole / fluconazole increased by 8% / 18% / 14% / 27% to 18 respectively.8/8.9/15.3/74.6 million / ton, part of the replacement of the main product price downward impact.In 2019Q1, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin declined and declined3.2pct to 24.9%, during the period the cost rate drops by 2 every year.1 point to 11.4%, of 南京夜网 which the sales / management / financial expense ratio decreased by 0.6/1.3/0.3 points to 2.7% / 7.3% / 1.4%. Strict investigations on production safety and expected shrinkage of the supply of pesticides According to Zhongnong Lihua, the prices of imidacloprid / methofenone / flusulfazone / tricyclazole were terminated in mid-April at 16 respectively.0/16.8/12.2/8.8 million / ton, 11% / 16% / 5% / 2% in the early stage, gradually affected by the impact of the water explosion accident, the prices of the above products have stopped falling and stabilized recently.At present, national safety inspections have led to increased production value of pesticide and intermediate manufacturers. Among them, Xiangshui, Binhai and other parks in northern Jiangsu are still in a state of overall suspension. The supply of pesticides has contracted significantly, and the market supply has gradually tightened.As a result, product prices are expected to increase, and the company is expected to benefit more. The convertible bond project is expected to help the long-term growth of performance The company issued convertible bonds to raise funds in April 20198.930,000 yuan, with Nantong Changqing as the main body to build “6,000 tons of dicamba per year”, “3,500 tons of glufosinate per year” and other 6 projects.The total of the above projects involves 1.91 Pesticides Pesticides and related raw materials. The company expects that the project construction period will be 1 year per year and the production period will be 2 years. It is estimated that it will contribute a total of 15 revenue after it has reached full production.4.6 billion, net profit 2.01 billion.The subsequent implementation of the fund-raising projects is conducive to rich product varieties, increasing the market share of existing products, and further enhancing the company’s industry competitiveness. Maintain “Overweight” rating. Taking into account the price of imidacloprid, we lower the company’s 2019 net profit forecast to 4.0 million yuan (original value 4).300 million), maintaining a net profit for 2020/2021 of 5.0/5.500 million predictions, the corresponding EPS is 1.11/1.39/1.54 yuan, based on the comparable company’s estimated level (average 15 times PE in 2019), considering the growth of convertible bond projects, giving the company 15-17 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 16.65-18.87 yuan (original value 14).52-16.94 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” level. Risk reminder: Downstream demand does not meet expected risks, and core technology is at risk of confidentiality.

Emeishan A (000888): Performance improves quarterly and new business expansion steadily advances

Emeishan A (000888): Performance improves quarterly and new business expansion steadily advances

I. Overview of the event The company released the third quarter report of 2019: Q3 realized revenue3.

400 million, an increase of 6.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

100 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.

5%; net profit after deduction to mother 1.

100 million, an increase of 9 in ten years.


Q1-Q3, the company realized revenue 8.

700 million, an increase of 3 in ten years.

0%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

9 trillion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

3%; net profit after deduction to mother 1.

800 million, an increase of 8 in ten years.


Second, analyze and judge the revenue growth rate improved quarter by quarter under the high base, the cost control remained stable, and the company’s revenue growth rate in the first three quarters was -3.

4% / 5.

1% / 6.

7%, considering that the ticket price reduction last year began to be implemented on September 20, and has a small impact on Q3. Therefore, this year’s Q3 revenue maintained a rapid growth rate, indicating that passenger flow and other businesses in the peak season have increased rapidly.

In terms of cost, the company continued to strengthen management and control, and Q3 gross profit margin extended by 0.

5pct, but the expense ratio increased slightly to 0 during the period.

3 points to 9.

7%, a slight increase of 0 due to the sales expense ratio and management expenses.

2pct / 1pct.

The performing arts + big data business is advancing steadily, and new business development is expected to contribute incremental growth.
The company announced that it will increase the capital and share of Yunshang Tourism. The company is mainly responsible for the operation of the tourism performing arts project “Only Mount Emei”.

Currently, the play has started on September 25th. The theater ticket price is 298 yuan, and local residents can enjoy a discounted air ticket price of 220 yuan.

According to the company’s forecast, after the mature period of the project, the average annual operating income is expected to be nearly 200 million US dollars, and the average annual net profit will be 49.68 million yuan. According to the company’s 40% shareholding ratio, it is expected that the annual average contribution will be nearly 20 million yuan, which is equivalent to value-added10% of net profit attributable to mothers in 2018.

However, considering that the script is still in trial operation, the increase in thickness is expected to be limited this year.

In addition, the company recently announced that it has won the bid for the Leshan Municipal Affairs Cloud and Big Data Center 杭州夜生活网 construction project, with an amount of about 19.99 million yuan. We judge that the company may rely on Leshan’s state-owned assets background to undertake more similar projects in the future, thereby further expanding its wide-ranging business structure and thus its performance.Reliance on ticket economy.

Third, investment advice The company’s recent new business layout has continued to advance. Although its short-term contribution to performance is limited, it still shows the company’s aggressive attitude.

In the first three quarters, the company’s revenue growth rate continued to improve, and Q4’s performance is still expected to continue to rise gradually under the background of low bases brought by ticket price reductions.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

46, 0.

50, 0.

55 yuan, corresponding to 合肥夜网 P / E ratios of 13X, 12X, 11X, which are estimated to be lower than the industry average, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Fourth, risk reminder: the performance of the performing arts project is less than expected; the risk of price reductions for tickets and ropeway tickets; force majeure such as natural disasters.

Dabei Nong (002385): the first stage of seed industry development

Dabei Nong (002385): the first stage of seed industry development

This report reads: This GM nomenclature mentions that corn and soybeans may have the potential to liberalize GM corn. If commercialization is liberalized, the profit margin of the seed industry will be expanded and expanded, and the northern technology advantage of first-mover farmers will rapidly increase the city’s share.

Event: On December 30, 2019, the Ministry of Agriculture released the “Public Notice on Naming of 192 Genetically Modified Plant Varieties, such as Ci KJH83”, announcing the 192 plant variety directories to be approved for the safety certificate of agricultural genetically modified organisms, including two corn genetically modified varietiesNames, including DBN9936 insect-resistant herbicide-resistant corn (transgenic BtCryAb, CP4EPSPS insect-resistant Caoganphos maize) of Beijing Dabeinong Biotechnology Co., Ltd. Comments: The release of transgenes has opened a new stage, and the seed industry competition pattern may be reshaped.

China’s seed industry is at the end of the commercialization promotion phase, and has entered the technology upgrading stage. After 10 years, the genetically modified corn has obtained the safety certificate for the first time, and there is a possibility that the genetic modification will be released under the internal and external environment. The domestic seed industry technology is also announced.The promotion phase has come to an initial stage.

If GM is liberalized, the end of China’s seed industry restructuring and commercialization promotion phase will enter the technology improvement phase. Domestic GM corn profit per mu can be increased by 20 yuan, and the effective profit margin of the market is expected to expand 4 times to 6 billion US dollars.

In this context, the biology of the industry’s technology sector has greatly improved, 重庆耍耍网 and the reshaping of the competitive landscape has become inevitable. Leading companies will take advantage of the wind to quickly increase market share.

Industry leaders took the lead to benefit, and Dabeinong’s first-mover technology advantage helped take off.

The company has one of the two transformed maize varieties on the approved list. The suitable planting area is China’s largest corn producing area, and the future has a bright future.

At the same time, the company relies on Dabeinong Biotechnology Co., Ltd. to deepen the layout of transgenes in advance for many years, and has undertaken large-scale national transgene transformation projects, accumulating interchangeable technology reserves; it is the first to excel in good varieties to expand markets in Argentina and other countries, and toBased on industrial 北京夜网 chemical fiber.

In addition, the company has formed a complete industrial chain that integrates pig breeding, feed sales, seed industry, Internet agriculture, etc. After the commercialization is liberalized, it can sell seeds and provide complete supporting service solutions, which is beneficial to the company’s long-term development.
Investment suggestion: The company not only has the first-mover advantage of advanced technology reserves, but also has the advantages of industrialization and complete industrial chain.

If the GM corn is released, the company as a leader will help increase the city’s share quickly.

We maintain our forecast that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

23 yuan / 0.

68 yuan / 0.

87 yuan, maintained at 8.

Target price of 77 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.

Risk reminders: Uncontrollable risks caused by natural disasters such as severe weather or insect disasters; risk of unsatisfactory demand caused by uncontrollable African swine fever; potential risks caused by less-than-expected policy promotion; and higher than expected risks of imported agricultural products.

Shanxi Coking (600740) Semi-annual Report of 2019 Comment: Coking’s Profit Grows Significantly

Shanxi Coking (600740) Semi-annual Report of 2019 Comment: Coking’s Profit Grows Significantly

Investment Highlights The company disclosed its semi-annual report for 2019: realized operating income34.

0.4 billion (-2.

98%), net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

6.7 billion (-6.

78%), after the company excludes non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit attributable to the mother is 7.

8.7 billion (+19.

60%), with a budget benefit of zero.

5109 yuan / share (-31.

8%), with an expected average ROE of 7.

93% (-24.


Coke production and sales declined, and unit income increased.

According to the reported quantity, the company’s coke production and sales were 140.

22 early and 141.

02 highest interest rates, at least reduced by 8.

7% and 8.

51%; ton of pyroformaldehyde is 1661.

5 yuan / ton, an increase of 2 per year.

56%; Affected by the breakthrough in production and sales fluctuations, coke business revenue (23.

4.3 billion) fell by 6 every year.


The average revenue of chemical products other than industrial naphthalene showed varying degrees.

Reporting intermediates, the company’s methanol production (7.

79 digits), pin (7.

56 benchmarks) were reduced by 23.

02% and 27.

45%, unit price (1772.

88 yuan / ton) with a decrease of 18.

42%, volume and price reduction lead to product revenue (1.

3.4 billion) with a decrease of 40.

81%; carbon black production (3.

76 carat), pin (3.

58 benchmark) volume increased by 22.

48% and 13.

29% unit bid (4724.

58 yuan / ton) with a decrease of 17.

19%, gradually leading to product revenue (1.
6.9 billion) with a decrease of 6.
18%; pure benzene (2.

72 carat), pin (2.

85)) The amount is reduced by 28.

23% and 26.

17% per unit bid (3629.

12 yuan / ton) with a decrease of 32.

2%, volume and price reductions lead to product revenue (1.

03 billion) with a decrease of 49.

94%; asphalt production (4.

04 early), pin (3.

81 benchmark) The amount is reduced by 0.

49% and 2.

56% per unit bid (3097.

11 yuan / ton) with the same 北京桑拿洗浴保健 reduction of 5.

64%, volume and price reductions lead to product revenue (1.

1.8 billion) with a decrease of 8.

06%; produced by industrial naphthalene (1.

64 carats), pin (1.

62)) were increased by 80 respectively.

22% and 74.

19%, unit price (3580.

25 yuan / ton) with the same reduction of 3.

07%, volume growth leads to product revenue (0.

5.8 billion) with an increase of 68.


Benefiting from the rise in coking coal prices in the first half of the year, China Coal Huajin contributed a slightly higher than expected profit.

The report summarizes that the company confirms that the investment income contributed by China Coal Huajin is 11.

At 30,000 yuan, the net profit of China Coal Huajin was 22 after 49% of the equity was reversed.

51 ppm, compared with 21 in the same period in 18 years.

3北京桑拿洗浴保健.4 billion increased by 5.

48%, earnings slightly exceeded expectations.

We believe that the increase in China Coal Huajin’s performance should mainly benefit from the increase in coking coal prices in the first half of the year.

Profit forecast and estimation: We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2019/20/201 of 14, respectively.



7 trillion, equivalent to 0 respectively.



10 yuan / share, currently 7.
RMB 92, corresponding to PE of 8.


2x, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: macroeconomic downturn; uncertainty of administrative capacity reduction; uncertainty of environmental protection and production limit policies.

Shanghai Jahwa (600315): 18 years of deducting non-attributed net profit + semi-annual + 38% Herborist rejuvenates the road to open the company’s turning point or can be expected

Shanghai Jahwa (600315): 18 years of deducting non-attributed net profit + semi-annual + 38% Herborist rejuvenates the road to open the company’s turning 杭州夜网 point or can be expected

A brief review of performance in 2018 The company achieved revenue 71.

380,000 yuan, ten years + 10.

01%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

4 trillion, +38 a year.

63%; net profit of non-attributed mothers4.

57 trillion, +37 a year.


Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 17 in a single quarter.

18 ‰, ten years +11.

66%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

870,000 yuan, +42 for ten years.


Q4 single-quarter revenue and return to net profit growth accelerated earlier Q3 accompanied by acceleration.

In terms of business analysis, the growth rates of beauty skin care, personal care and home care business in 2018 were 3 respectively.

41%, 12.

27% and 41.

18%: Beauty skin care achieved revenue of 23 in 2018.

55 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

41%; personal care achieved revenue 45.

41 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

27%; home care achieved revenue 2.

33 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.


In terms of brands, Herborist has been adjusted for 18 years, and a series of budgets have fallen slightly. Liushen achieved double-digit growth. The net growth rate of the United States and Canada was close to 10%. Gough achieved positive growth. Qichu, Yuze, and Jia’an brands grew faster than40%, Tang Meixing brand realized sales revenue.

3.3 billion, deducting non-net profit 7454.

0.6 million yuan.

In terms of channels, in 2018 the company’s online and offline channels accounted for 22% and 78%, respectively, with growth rates of 13 respectively.

11% and 9%.

In 18 years, the company’s gross profit margin was acceptance, and the sales and management expense ratio achieved a double decline, and the net profit rate rebounded: In 18 years, the company’s gross profit margin was 62.

79% every year -2.

14pct, the initial decline includes: 1) price increases of raw materials such as menthol, borneol, etc .; ② the proportion of low-margin product sales increased; ③ the use of new factories (Qingpu across factories) in 2018, the overall cost increased, the current capacity utilization rate is about 40%. In the future, it is expected that the cost sharing of alternative products will be reduced by increasing the production capacity.

The company’s fee control effect was good, and the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 2 respectively.

2pct and 0.

7pct ;.

In addition, the company realized other benefits1.

87 trillion, mainly including local financial industry development support funds, compensation for central factory demolition and financial incentives, etc., accounting for 2% of revenue.

62%, an increase of 1 each year.

86 points.Under the overall good rhythm of fee control, the company’s net interest rate increased by 1.

56 points to 7.


Looking forward to 2019, the revitalization of the Herborist brand is worth looking forward to: The company’s key business plans for 2019 include 1) brand-driven, creating star products; ② research and development ahead, the establishment of a joint laboratory with Huashan Hospital; ③ channel innovation, omnichannel 四川耍耍网 system to improve efficiency;④Supply guarantee and increase the capacity utilization rate of the new plant.

The company reorganized and reset the brand expectations, slogans, positioning, differences of the Herborist brand, and proposed targeted implementation transformation.

I believe the company’s key optimization of the Herborist brand can be 2019.

The investment proposal for 19-21 is expected to return to the net profit of the mother is 6.



55 ppm, the current market value corresponds to PE of 32.



7 times, maintaining the level.

Risks prompt increased market competition, increased consumption growth, and channel structure shift

Trump visits India for the first time in office

Trump visits India for the first time in office

Xinhua News Agency, New Delhi, February 23 (International Observation) Trump’s first visit to India. It is difficult to conceal differences in articles. Xinhua reporter Hu Xiaoming. US President Trump will pay a state visit to India from 24 to 25.
This will be Trump’s first visit to India during his tenure.
  Analysts pointed out that the symbolic significance of this visit is greater than the actual significance, and the differences between the two sides on issues such as trade and arms sales will be difficult to resolve in the short term.
  The visit is very compact. According to the schedule announced by the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trump’s trip to India will be very compact.
In less than 36 hours, in addition to the capital New Delhi, Trump will also visit Ahmedabad, the largest city in Gujarat, home of Indian Prime Minister Modi, and visit the Taj Mahal.
  During the visit, in addition to formal talks with Modi, Trump will also participate in a round table of Indian business leaders, attend a state banquet held by Indian President Kovind at the Presidential Palace, and attend a meeting called you in a stadium that can accommodate 110,000 people.OK, Trump’s big rally and speaking.
  Indian Foreign Secretary Shrinla said Modi will hold comprehensive talks with Trump covering defense, security, counter-terrorism, trade, energy, cultural exchanges and other issues involving the strategic partnership between the two countries.Exchange views on regional and international issues of common interest.
  The White House issued a statement saying that the visit aims to further strengthen the US-India strategic partnership and strengthen the relationship between the two peoples.
  Analysts believe that trade issues and defense cooperation will be the focus of Trump’s visit.
This year is the US election year, and Trump is trying to use this visit to add points to his reelection.
  It is particularly difficult to resolve trade disputes. Public opinion is cautiously optimistic about the outcome of Trump ‘s visit, arguing that a seemingly large-scale visit will not conceal the contradictions and differences between the United States on many issues, especially trade issues.
Officials from the two countries have recently stated that India and the United States may not reach a trade agreement in the near future.
  Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Rawish Kumar said on the 20th that New Delhi will not rush to reach a trade agreement with the United States, and India does not want to set any artificial deadline.
  Trump said at a recent event in Las Vegas that the United States and India may reach a trade agreement, but may also slow down and reach after the presidential election.
Some American media believe that Trump’s visit may reach a limited agreement with India.
  Trade disputes are one of the most difficult issues facing India and the United States.
The Trump administration has repeatedly publicly accused India of being one of the highest tariff countries in the world, and has been demanding a reduction in its trade deficit with India.
  The United States imposed additional tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum products in 2018. India quickly formulated a list of additional tariffs on US products, but it has repeatedly postponed implementation, hoping to advance related negotiations with the United States.
The United States announced in June 2019 that India’s failure to ensure fair and reasonable market access conditions to the United States has announced the cancellation of GSP treatment to India, causing Indian dissatisfaction.
India subsequently imposed tariffs on 28 types of American exports including almonds and apples.
  On February 10 this year, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced that more than 20 economies, including India and Brazil, were removed from the list of developing economies, making it easier for the US government to launch countervailing investigations and impose punitive tariffs on them.
  Analysts point out that despite months of trade talks between India and the United States, differences between the two sides are difficult to resolve in a short time.
  Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the US think tank’s Foreign Relations Committee, believes that the United States’ behavior in trade has pushed India in the opposite direction that the United States hopes.
  防务合作存阴影  据印度媒体报道,特朗普访问期间,双方可能会签署多项武器交易协议,包括从美国军工巨头洛克希德—马丁公司购买24架总计约26亿美元的MH-60R海鹰For helicopters, six AH-64E Apache helicopters were purchased from Boeing, and eight P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft were ordered from the United States.
  Analysts believe that even if the United States has significantly increased its arms sales to India in recent years, Russia, as a traditional partner, has always been the main supplier of Indian defense equipment, and the two countries have cooperated closely in the field of military 天津夜网 technology.
India and the United States have significant differences over the purchase of Russian air defense missiles.
  Former US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns pointed out that under the background of the current Trump administration’s emphasis on the United States and the rise in nationalist sentiment in the United States and India, it is still uncertain whether the relationship between the two sides can be substantially promoted.
(Participating reporters: Liu Chen, Xiong Maoling, and Liu Pinran) Original Title: Trump’s First Visit to India

Xinhualian (000620) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Profitability Improves Efficiency, Cultural Tourism Enters Harvest Period

Xinhualian (000620) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Profitability Improves Efficiency, Cultural Tourism Enters Harvest Period

Investment highlights: Event: The company released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 140 in 2018.

0 ppm, an increase of 88 in ten years.

2%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 40 in ten years.


Operating efficiency has improved significantly, and net profit after deductions has further increased.

The company’s performance growth 武汉夜网论坛 rate was lower than revenue growth rate mainly due to at least a portion of the increase in net investment income.

Net profit of the company replacing non-recurring gains and losses9.

7 ppm, an increase of 206 in ten years.

9%, mainly because the company’s operating income further increased, and the gross profit rate improved and the period expense ratio decreased.

The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased in the short term in 20181.

7 totals; the rate of expenses per period is reduced by 5.

4 units.

Real estate contributes more than 80% of its revenue and is still a ballast for performance.

Real estate business contributed 81 in 2018.

1% operating income and gross profit margin of 38.

More than 1% is higher than cultural tourism and construction and decoration business, which is still the company’s basic market.

Real estate business settlement 113.

5 ‰, an increase of 84 in ten years.

9%; realized sales area of 880,000 miles, which has remained flat over the years, with a sales value of 10.7 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 3 years.


The company’s land layout is concentrated in cities such as “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei”, “Yangtze River Delta”, “Daya Bay”, and land cost input.

As of the end of 2018, the area to be developed is 194.

70,000 countries, an annual increase of 37.

6%, equity accounted for 95.


The cultural tourism project has entered the operational phase, and the “cultural tourism + real estate + finance” strategy has been actively implemented.

After the listing, the company actively transformed its cultural tourism business, and a large number of cultural tourism projects have recently entered the operational phase.

Changsha Xinhua Lianguanyao Ancient Town will operate in August 2018; Wuhu Xinhua Lianjiuzi Ancient Town and Xining Xinhua Lian Tongmeng Paradise are planned to operate in July 2019; the 5A scenic spot acquired by M & A Langzhong Ancient City will officially operate in January 2019; Jeju, KoreaXinhualian Jinxiu Villa has obtained the development license.

In terms of financial business, the holding subsidiary Xin Silk Road Cultural Tourism (00472.

(Hong Kong) Acquired 100% of the economic interests of China Finance by issuing shares to Derived Technology; the company holds 8 shares.

5% of Changsha Bank was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in September 2018.

Leverage has steadily decreased, and increasing holdings by controlling shareholders highlight confidence.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s asset-liability ratio withdrawn from advance receipts was 79.

6% before the end of 20171.

5 units; net aldehyde supplement 197.

4% before the end of 2017 12.

8 averages, marginal improvement in leverage.The Q1 2019 cash to short-term interest-bearing debt coverage ratio was 77.

8%, before the end of 2017 35.

5 shares per share, there is some pressure on short-term debt repayment.

Total financing at the end of the period was 247.

8 ‰, ten years ago 7.


The controlling shareholder of the company, Xinhua Lian Holdings, gradually increased its holdings of the company’s issued shares during the year1.

38%, highlighting confidence in the company’s future business development.

Profit forecast and investment grade: The company actively transforms the cultural travel business. After a large number of projects enter the operating period, the cultural travel project will become an important growth driver of the company, while the real estate development business remains the company’s basic disk.

We estimate that the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2021 will be 15.2 billion, 15.9 billion, and 16.3 billion, respectively; net profit attributable to mothers will be 14 respectively.

0 billion, 16.

400 million and 20.

0 yuan; EPS is 0.

74 yuan, 0.

86 yuan and 1.

05 yuan, corresponding to PE is 6.

2X, 5.

3 times and 4.

3 times.

Maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating.

Risk warnings: 1. The income contributed by the cultural tourism business is less than expected; 2. The project settlement is less than expected.

Blue Flame Holdings (000968) Quick Review of Important Events: Received 2 New Blockchain Trial Production Approval Gases Entering the Rising Channel

Blue Flame Holdings (000968) Quick Review of Important Events: Received 2 New Blockchain Trial Production Approval Gases Entering the Rising Channel
Matters: The company issued an announcement announcing that in October 2017, Liulin Shixi, which won the bid for the exploration right, and the Wuxiang South block received the test mining 杭州桑拿 approval issued by the Shanxi Natural Resources Department.The trial mining period runs from April 16, 2019 to April 15, 2020. Guoxin public opinion: Trial mining approval is an important way to advance the new blockchain from the prospecting phase to the mining phase. The company won the bid for 4 new blockchains in 2017 and 2 of them obtained trial mining approvals.Gas income and performance improvement.We look forward to the continued advancement of the company’s new blockchain and the subsequent resource docking brought by the reorganization of Shanxi Gas Group, maintaining the profit forecast for 2019-2021 to 7.97/10.69/13.670,000 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 15.6x / 11.6x / 9.1x, maintain “Buy” rating and maintain a reasonable estimate of 16.48-16.58 yuan. Comment: Blockchain progress review: 2017 won the 四川耍耍网 bid for the new blockchain, quickly transferred to the trial production phase in 18 months. The company participated in the first coal seam gas exploration right in China organized by Shanxi Province in October 2017, and won the bid. 10 blocks4 bids were won, including the Liulin Shixi, Wuxiang South, and Heshun Hengling and Heshun West. The prospecting rights are for 3 years.In one and a half years, three of the above four blocks have already ignited gas, and Liulin Shixi / Wuxiang South / Heshunhengling completed 34/13/3 wells and fractured 18/10/1 wells. Trial mining approval is significant, opening the block gas volume and increasing performance. The “Regulations on the Management of Mineral Resource Exploration Block Registration” stipulates that prospecting rights holders need to conduct trial mining during the exploration of petroleum, natural gas and other fluid minerals.Trial mining for 1 year.The trial mining phase is an important time to connect the prospecting and mining phases, which can accelerate the progress of exploration and development, and the produced coalbed methane can be sold externally.We believe that the Liulin Shixi and Wuxiangnan blockchains that have been approved for trial mining this time are expected to contribute incremental sales volume to listed companies in 2019 and contribute to gas sales revenue and performance.The company’s annual report is expected to complete 30 trillion fixed assets investment in 2019, according to the end of the first quarter of 2019 fixed assets 33.00 ppm, construction in progress 7.5.3 billion US dollars, the investment planning volume accounts for a considerable proportion, we research and judge will be mainly used for the above-mentioned new blockchain exploration and mining. The benchmarking phase of the Mabi Blockchain is expected to have a positive impact. We observed the Asia-American Energy Mabi Block, also in Shanxi., But as early as July 2017, it has reached a sales agreement with CNPC during the exploration period (pilot period).Affected by this, Ma Bi’s 2018 net sales growth rate was 68% to 71.47 million cubic meters, and revenue growth rate was 335%. EBITDA turned losses from -26.89 million yuan in 2017 to 40.13 million yuan. In 2018, the company mainly contributed gas volume and sold gas volume -1 from the old blockchain.86% to 6.8.7 billion cubic meters, but the average tax price +0 is excluded.12 yuan / square to 1.72 yuan / square, the average gas production operating cost -0.04 yuan / square to 0.46 yuan / square.With the overall upward gas price in the market in 2019, if the company’s new blockchain enters the trial production phase and contributes gas volume, it is expected to boost the performance of Shanxi Gas Group to promote transformation and try to connect more resources for listed companies. Shanxi is promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises and the newly established Shanxi GasThe group proposes to become the company’s controlling shareholder to build an integrated and optimized whole, middle and downstream industry chain.As their respective sole listing platforms, the company is expected to rapidly develop the main coalbed methane mining industry through the resources of the gas group, accelerate the interconnection of the pipeline network, and promote the improvement of the coalbed methane industry chain. Investment suggestion: Redefining the “Buy” rating, maintaining profit forecast and reasonable estimation of trial mining approval is an important change in the new blockchain from the exploration phase to the mining phase. In 2017, the company won 4 bids for the new blockchain.It is expected that the trial production will be accurate, which is expected to benefit the company’s sales volume and gas sales revenue this year, and its performance will increase.We look forward to the continued advancement of the company’s new blockchain and the subsequent resource docking brought by the reorganization of Shanxi Gas Group, maintaining the profit forecast for 2019-2021 to 7.97/10.69/13.670,000 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 15.6x / 11.6x / 9.1x, maintain “Buy” rating and maintain a reasonable estimate of 16.48-16.58 yuan.

Gree Electric (000651): Revenue growth stabilizes and dividends return as scheduled

Gree Electric (000651): Revenue growth stabilizes and dividends return as scheduled


Incident 2018 Gree Electric Appliances achieved operating income of 1981.

23 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

61%; net profit attributable to mother was 262.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

97%; cash flow from operating activities 269.

410,000 yuan, an increase of 64 in ten years.



Our Analysis and Judgment (I) Revenue maintained rapid growth, and the leading air-conditioning company stabilized its revenue to maintain rapid growth.

In 2018, the company’s revenue increased by 33 in ten years.

61%, continue to lead in the home appliance industry.

In terms of different products, air-conditioning is the subsidiary of the company’s main product, but its revenue accounted for a small margin.

In 2018, the company’s air-conditioning revenue was 1556.

82 million, an increase of 26 every year.

15%, accounting for 78% of total operating income.

58%, a decrease of 4 from 17 years.


Industry online data shows that the company’s air-conditioning business has obvious advantages, and its production and sales have ranked first in the domestic air-conditioning industry for 24 consecutive years.

The company’s household electrical appliances and intelligent equipment business have developed rapidly, with operating income of 37 in 2018.

9.4 billion and 31.

09 billion, an increase of 64 each year.

9% and 46.

19%, accounting for 1 in total operating income.

91% and 1.

57%, an increase of 0 from the previous year.

36pct and 0.

14 points.

We believe that the decrease in the proportion of the company’s air-conditioning revenue is mainly due to two reasons, which led to the acceleration of the growth rate of the air-conditioning industry in 2018 and the acquisition and consolidation of Hefei Jinghong for the company.

By region, the company’s domestic sales revenue in 2018 was 1483.

23 ppm, an increase of 30 per year.

46%, accounting for 74% of operating income.

86%, down by 1 from the previous period.

81pct; operating income of the company’s export business was 222.

70 ppm, an increase of 20 per year.

42%, accounting for 11.

24%, down by 1 from the previous period.

23pct.From the data point of view, the company’s domestic and foreign sales revenue ratios continue to change. We believe that the company’s expansion and expansion of overseas markets will help the company’s sales revenue to maintain a steady increase.

In terms of different channels, the company deeply cultivates offline channels and develops online layout.

As of the end of 2018, the company’s outlets had 4 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 12.


In addition, the company conducted in-depth cooperation with JD.com and Ali to provide diversified products and achieved better results. In 2018, Gree’s energy-efficient alternative footprint in JD.com and Tmall platform increased by 9 pct and 5 respectively.


In terms of quarters, the company’s operating income for Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in 2018 was 400.




7.4 billion, with short-term growth rates of 33.

29% / 30.

15% / 38.

46% / 32.

11%, net profit attributable to mothers was 55.

8.2 billion, 72.

25 billion, 83.

12 billion, 50.

8.4 billion, the previous growth rate was 39.

04%, 32.

85%, 38.

35%, -26.


The company’s Q4 net profit growth was negative, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of overseas sales and the prominent increase in research and development expenses.

(II) The company’s profitability is stable, and the cash flow from operating activities has increased significantly. In 2018, the company’s gross profit margin was 30.

23%, a decline of 2 per year.

63 points.

We think the decline in the company’s gross profit margin was mainly due to the rise in domestic raw material prices.

In 2018, the company’s air-conditioning operating income increased by 26 each year.

15%, less than the increase in the cost of air-conditioning business, the gross profit margin of air-conditioning drops by 0 every year.


In addition, the decline in gross profit margin of the company’s domestic sales in 2018 decreased by 2%.

68%, gross margin of export business increased year by year2.

81%. The decline in the gross profit margin of domestic sales led to a decline in the company’s overall gross profit margin.

Net sales margin of the company in 201813.

31%, down by 1 every year.

87pct, less than the decline in gross profit margin.

We think the reason is the decline in the company’s sales expense ratio and financial expense ratio.

Among them, the company’s selling expense ratio is from 11.

24% dropped to 9.54%, financial expenses decreased by 319 due to the increase in exchange income.


Company management expenses and R & D expenses increase by 77 each year.

91% and 93.

18%, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, material consumption, depreciation and amortization. In terms of cash flow, the company’s net cash generated from operating activities in 2018 was 269.

41 million, an increase of 64 every year.

9%, the company’s operating quality is better.

(3) The cash dividend return plan for the company’s 2018 profit distribution plan is to pay a cash dividend of 15 四川耍耍网 yuan (including tax) to every 10 shares for all shareholders, and the semi-annual profit distribution plan is a cash dividend of 6 yuan (including tax) to every 10 shares for all shareholdersThe proportion of cash dividends to the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of listed companies was 48.


The company did not pay any cash dividends in 2017. In 2016, the cash dividends accounted for 70% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of listed companies.


Although the company’s cash dividends were less than expected, the trend of gradual return was obvious.

(IV) Increasing R & D investment and accelerating diversified layout The company’s R & D investment in 2018 was 72.

68 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.

04%, the number of R & D personnel is 13.

30%, increase by 2 every year.


The large amount of research and development has promoted the company’s diversified layout and realized the pace of intelligent manufacturing and industrial upgrading.

In the intelligent equipment sector, the company has provided six specialized intelligent equipment companies with more than a hundred specifications of intelligent products. In the precision mold sector, Gree’s mold products have exceeded the domestic industry average in a variety of parameters., Innovation and automation have become industry leaders; in the smart home sector, the company’s “Gree Zero Carbon Healthy Home” released at the 2018 Chongqing International Expo Center Exhibition has achieved key home appliance linkage based on key technologies.

The operating income of the company’s intelligent equipment increased by 46 compared with the previous year.

19%, we believe that in the context of the company’s continued expansion of R & D and promotion, its main products will remain highly competitive, revenues from smart equipment and other sectors will further increase, and the company’s product structure will be more reasonable.


The investment suggestion is that the company is a leading enterprise in the home appliance industry, with obvious competitive advantages and a solid industry as a whole. Its air-conditioning market share has been steadily occupying the leading position in the home. With the rapid growth of the air-conditioning industry in 2018, its revenue has maintained rapid growth.

In addition, through the acquisition of Hefei Jinghong and more R & D expansion of smart equipment, the company will gradually reduce the proportion of air-conditioning revenue and continue to accelerate diversified development. The future development will be more stable.

In 2018, the company’s dividends will return as scheduled, the investment value will increase, and the corporate governance structure is expected to be further optimized with the adjustment of the shareholding structure.Ten thousand dollars, corresponding EPS is 4.

82, 5.

44 and 6.

17 yuan, maintain the “recommended” level.


Risks indicate fluctuations in the real estate market, fluctuations in the prices of factors of production, and increased competition in the industry.

Hikvision (002415) Third Quarterly Report Review: Accelerated Performance Growth Accelerates Multiple AI Products to Open New Blue Ocean Market

Hikvision (002415) Third Quarterly Report Review: Accelerated Performance Growth Accelerates Multiple AI Products to Open New Blue Ocean Market

The growth rate of performance accelerated, and the increase in stock preparation affected cash flow.

The company achieved revenue of 398 in the first three quarters of 2019.

3 billion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

86%, net profit attributable to mother 80.

27 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.


Among them, the third quarter revenue was 159.

15 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

12%, net profit 38.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

31%, the growth rate further accelerated; the company’s first three quarters of net cash flow from operating activities12.

4 ‰, a decrease of 95 per year.

3%, mainly due to the increase in stocking; the company expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 will be 5% -20%.

  Multiple AI products open new blue ocean markets.

The company’s AI open platform trains the trash can overflow recognition algorithm for community scenarios, making the camera smart. The camera monitors the monitoring area in real time. When the trash overflows, it immediately sends reset information to the application platform.

After receiving the information, the district management staff 淡水桑拿网 notifies the corresponding area’s garbage removal personnel to go to the removal, so that the overflow of the trash can can be corrected in time and removed quickly.

In addition, in order to meet the intelligent needs of the petroleum refining, coal and other energy industries, the company launched an AI open platform explosion-proof camera to promote the explosion-proof applications into a new era. The company’s explosion-proof product family includes explosion-proof heads, explosion-proof ball machines, explosion-proof barrel machines, explosion-proof hemispheres,Vehicle explosion-proof, explosion-proof thermal imaging and its complete accessories.

  Join hands with Yongai Pension and enter the smart pension market.

The company recently entered into a multi-year strategic cooperation agreement with Yongai Pension Industry 苏州夜网论坛 Co., Ltd. in the Beijing National Convention Center and set up a “smart pension” joint laboratory.

The two sides have reached consensus and cooperation intentions to promote the deep integration of big data and intelligent elderly care services, use intelligent technology to improve the management level of elderly care services, and build a “non-intervention” intelligent elderly care service for the future domestic elderly care service market.

One of the achievements of the cooperation is a “defect-free” monitoring system, which is the application of artificial intelligence technology in the elderly care operation and provides timely and convenient services.

  Investment suggestion: As a leading global security company, the company is ushering in an inflection point in the volume of AI products, transforming fluorite, automotive electronics and other innovative businesses. The EPS is expected to be 1 in 2019-2020.

5, 1.

86 yuan, maintain Buy-A rating, target price of 32 yuan.

  Risk Warning: Overseas trade risks; new product market progress is less than expected.